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The Large Cap Quality Value Portfolio
is positioned in higher quality
companies that have withstood the test
of time and have the ability to prosper
and do well in difficult times.
Richard Sherry, CFA
Portfolio Manager & Senior Research Analyst
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Market Overview
The third quarter was marked by a great deal of volatility as disruptions in global
credit markets negatively affected equity markets early in the quarter. These
disruptions prompted central banks around the world to inject liquidity into the
markets in August and the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one half
of one percent in September. Most indexes declined in the low-to-mid single-
digit range in July before rebounding strongly in August and September. Year to
date through the end of the third quarter, most indexes were up in the mid
single-digit to low double-digit range.
The disruption in global credit markets was initiated by problems in the housing
sector and the subprime mortgage market. This subsequently led to concerns of
a possible credit crunch involving subprime securitizations upon banks and the
negative affect this could have on the economy. Underlying these issues were
higher energy and commodity prices and the potential for higher levels of
inflation.
Investors increased their focus on credit risk to a level not seen since the 2001
recession. Post this recession and for the past five years, there has been an
exceptionally low level of concern regarding credit risk due to a global savings
glut and low interest rates. However, during the third quarter, credit spreads
between 10-year high-yield bonds and 10-year Treasury bonds widened from 3%
at the beginning of the quarter to 4.6% by mid-August. However, the actions of
global central banks noted above alleviated the concerns of many in the credit
markets and this led to a decline in the spread to 4.0% by the end of the quarter.
As investors recognized that housing and mortgage-related problems would
likely spill over into the general economy, they gravitated towards stocks that
could still prosper in a slowing economy. This produced notable outperformance
by both larger capitalization stocks and growth stocks. Larger capitalization
companies benefited from diversified business portfolios and from an increased
level of exposure to international markets, where many economies are growing
faster than and are less susceptible to the problems that are negatively affecting
the U.S. economy. In addition, companies with international exposure are
benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar. When overseas earnings are converted into
U.S. dollars for financial reporting purposes, those earnings in foreign
currencies that have appreciated in value relative to the U.S. dollar positively
impact reported results.
The deterioration in credit markets that occurred during the quarter negatively
affected the stocks of companies with weaker balance sheets. However, that
outperformance was less pronounced when looking at companies with higher
quality, more consistent income statements.
Financials and consumer discretionary were among the worst performing
sectors due to concerns related to credit markets and consumer spending.
Energy stocks, on the other hand, benefited from higher energy prices and
exhibited the best performance during the quarter. Industrials also had strong
performance during the quarter due, in part, to the international exposure of
many of these companies, where growth is stronger in most overseas markets
than in the U.S.
Portfolio Overview
For the quarter, the Large Cap Quality Value Portfolio slightly underperformed
the Russell 1000 Value Index. While the portfolio outperformed the index when
it declined in July, the portfolio trailed the index somewhat when it rallied in
August and September.
Companies that contributed the most to performance during the quarter were
Barrick Gold and ConocoPhillips. Barrick Gold is one of the largest gold
companies in the world. Recent actions by the Federal Reserve to lower interest
rates and concerns regarding a slowing economy put downward pressure on the
U.S. dollar during the quarter. This contributed to an increase in the price of
gold, which is seen as a hedge against the U.S. dollar. In addition, the company
remains well positioned to expand margins as new, more profitable operations
contribute to the bottom line. ConocoPhillips benefited from higher energy
prices and from strong operational performance.
The companies that contributed the least to performance during the quarter
included Limited Brands and Wyeth. Limited Brands owns and operates retail
stores, notably Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works. In a positive
development earlier this year, the company announced plans to divest its low
margin apparel businesses. This will result in a company with less fashion risk
and a higher presence in businesses that have strong positions in higher margin,
niche markets. However, the stock has been negatively affected by concerns
regarding a possible slowdown in consumer spending and with some product
launches that failed to meet expectations. Despite these issues, we believe that
both Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works have very strong positions in niche
markets and that the current issues are only temporary. The stock remains one
of the highest yielding retail stocks due, in part, to the strength of its core
businesses and the cash flow that they generate. Wyeth is one of the world's
leading pharmaceutical companies. Last quarter it was one of the largest
contributors to performance as the company resolved some manufacturing
issues at a facility in Puerto Rico and revenue growth remained strong. However,
the company's near-term outlook was negatively affected by potential generic
competition for one of its drugs and its long-term outlook was negatively affected
by a delay in approval for another of its drugs. Despite these issues, the company
continues to perform well with strong top-line growth producing operating
margin improvements. In late September, the Board indicated its confidence in
the business and its focus on shareholder value by increasing the dividend and
announcing a new share buyback program.
Purchases and Sales
During the third quarter, we established a new position in Clorox and increased
our positions in Bank of America, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, and
Lincoln National. We sold our positions in Citigroup, Coca-Cola, Comerica,
Southern Company, and U.S. Bancorp.
Over the years, Clorox has consistently produced solid operating margins and
generated strong returns on capital. The company's new management team is
focusing on improving economic profit growth and further improving the growth
and profitability of the business. Excess cash will be used to invest in growing the
business, increasing the dividend (which has been increased twice during the
past year), and buying back shares. We used weakness in the stock to initiate a
position in July. In early August, the stock declined further after reporting fiscal
fourth-quarter numbers and providing an outlook for the first half of the current
fiscal year that was somewhat below investor expectations. A revenue shortfall in
the fourth quarter, after very strong results in the third quarter, and the potential
short-term impact of lower than expected gross margins in the first half of next
year have not changed our long-term outlook on the company. We used further
weakness in the stock price to increase our position.
We used weakness in financial stocks to add to our position in Bank of America.
Despite concerns in the market regarding financial stocks in general, Bank of
America continues to produce strong returns, credit quality is good, and the
bank's large, low-cost deposit base provides a cheap source of funds. In addition,
in late July, the Board approved a 14% increase in the dividend and the stock has
a current yield of 5.0%.
We used weakness in Kimberly-Clark's stock price to increase our position in a
company that produces strong cash flow and grows revenue at an attractive mid-
to-high single-digit pace. The stock yields more than 3% and is, in our opinion,
one of the most attractively priced large-capitalization, consumer-discretionary
stocks.
Johnson & Johnson has struggled recently with lower than expected revenue
growth driven by concerns regarding patent expirations on some key
pharmaceutical products over the next few years and by market changes in the
drug-eluting stent market, where it is a market leader. However, the company's
consumer business continues to generate solid and predictable revenue growth
and, over the next few years, the business will generate profit synergies related
to its recent acquisition of Pfizer's consumer health-care business. Recently, the
company announced a restructuring plan to reduce the cost base in the
company's pharmaceutical and drug-eluting stent businesses to a more
appropriate size given current market conditions. The company has also
announced that its Board has authorized the company to buy back $10 billion
of stock. The program has no time limit and represents about 5.5% of the
company's market capitalization. Yielding 2.5% and trading at an attractive
valuation level, we increased our position in the stock.
Lincoln National's stock price had been weak since mid-May. Although the
weakness can be attributed to the announcement of the company's CEO retiring,
we believe his replacement, the company's current President and COO, will
provide the proper stewardship for the company, having already proven himself
as the CEO of Jefferson Pilot before it was acquired by Lincoln National. We used
the weakness in the stock to add to our position.
Citigroup was sold to fund an increase in Bank of America. Bank of America was
selling at a slight discount to Citigroup, yet we believe that Bank of America has
a stronger franchise that is better positioned for longer term growth.
Over the past year Coca-Cola's stock has performed well in a strong market.
However, the company's over-reliance on carbonated soft drinks continues to
hurt it in the U.S. and income growth remains below historic levels. Recent
initiatives to increase growth are coming from the acquisition of other beverage
companies and from acquiring and consolidating affiliated bottling operations.
Both of these methods of growth are somewhat expensive and could lead to
lower margins and lower returns. Recent strength in the stock price resulted in
the stock trading above our fair value price. We used the proceeds to increase
our investment in Kimberly-Clark, which was more attractively priced than Coca-
Cola.
Comerica was sold to fund an increased investment in Lincoln National. Both
companies were selling at similar multiples; however, we believe that Lincoln
National is better positioned to achieve stronger long term growth.
Southern Company was sold to help fund increased investments in Clorox and
Johnson & Johnson. Both were selling at a comparable price-to-earnings ratio to
Southern Company, however, we believe they offer stronger growth potential than
Southern Company's mid single-digit growth rate.
U.S. Bancorp has one of the lowest cost ratios in the banking industry and
produces strong returns on equity. However, growth has been below expectations
for a while and management has indicated that an increased level of investment
is necessary to start growing the business again. Lower growth and increased
investment spending are beginning to negatively affect the company's returns.
U.S. Bancorp was sold to help fund our investment in Clorox, which we believe
offers stronger, more profitable growth going forward.
Summary
After a weak June, the Russell 1000 Value Index rallied in early July before
declining by almost 10% from mid-July to mid-August due to concerns regarding
credit markets and the economy. Despite the rebound in markets since mid-
August, many of the issues that concerned the market in July still exist. In
addition, energy prices remain high and inflation remains a potential threat.
These concerns pose a greater risk for highly indebted, low-quality companies
that rely on corporate debt to finance their growth.
The Large Cap Quality Value Portfolio is positioned in higher quality companies
that have withstood the test of time and have the ability to prosper and do well
in difficult times. These are companies that have high returns on capital that, in
turn, generate above-average earnings growth. We believe that this provides a
solid underpinning for long-term growth of investor capital.
As always we endeavor to manage your portfolio with the highest quality
businesses, outgrowing their markets, purchased at discount valuations.
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