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At this point in the cycle, we believe owning a
diversified portfolio of companies with a high return
on equity, strong balance sheets, and above market
earnings growth is a prudent strategy.
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Market Overview
After rallying during April and May to erase much of the markets’ firstquarter
declines, the markets experienced one of the worst (if not the worst
for certain indexes) monthly returns in history for the month of June. The
markets continue to be affected by the slowing economy, persisting credit
problems, and rising inflation. For the quarter, the Russell Midcap Index
rose 2.67%, outperforming both the Russell 2000 Index (+0.58%) and the
S&P 500 Index (-2.73%). Growth significantly outperformed value during
the quarter, with the Russell 2000 Growth Index up 4.47% versus the Russell
2000 Value Index down 3.55%. Year to date through June 30, all equity
indexes, regardless of asset class, were down in the high single-digit to low
double-digit range.
Reflecting record high oil prices, energy was the strongest performing sector
by a wide margin, increasing more than 30% in every small and mid-cap
Russell index. Financial services was among the worst performers,
continuing the trend experienced for several quarters, along with
transportation and consumer staples, which were both impacted by higher
commodity prices.
Low-quality stocks, as measured by S&P Quality Rankings, held up
substantially better than high-quality stocks during the quarter (See chart:
Performance by S&P Quality Rankings). Although high-quality should
intuitively outperform in this type of market environment, high quality
underperformed due to the large weighting of banks in the high-quality
segment of the benchmarks, which were down considerably during the
quarter. Excluding financials, the performance between high and low quality
appeared more balanced. However, in the sectors where low quality
outperformed, it was by a greater magnitude than in the sectors where high
quality outperformed.

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Data is obtained from FactSet Research Systems and is assumed to be reliable.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data is for the second quarter 2008.
High Quality - Stocks in the Russell 2000® Index with an S&P quality ranking of A- or higher.
Low Quality - Stocks in the Russell 2000® Index with an S&P quality ranking of A or less. |
Portfolio Overview
The Small Cap Core Portfolio underperformed the Russell 2000 Index for the
quarter. The underperformance was driven by the aforementioned
performance of low quality during the quarter and by the strong
performance of the energy sector. Despite the portfolio’s slight overweight in
energy, the Small Cap Core Portfolio’s holdings did not keep pace with those
in the benchmark due to the types of energy companies that we own. Given
our high-quality orientation, we own companies that have less direct
exposure to the underlying price of the commodity in order to protect the
portfolio against the price volatility. In this environment, these types of
energy companies did not perform as strongly as those with more direct
exposure to the commodity, such as oil producers and drilling companies.
The companies that contributed the most to performance during the quarter
included Ansys and Lincoln Electric Holdings. Ansys, a leading developer of
simulation software, continues to drive adoption of simulation technology
among a broad customer base by adding functionality and expanding
capabilities as desktop computing power increases. The business also
benefited from cross-selling efforts after a recent acquisition and strong
international revenues. Further, investors were encouraged by an
announced acquisition that will significantly enhance the company’s
product platform. Lincoln Electric Holdings is the world leader in arc
welding equipment and consumables. The company continues to prosper
from the strong industrial economies worldwide and the global
infrastructure capital spending. Despite the commodity-cost headwind, the
company has aptly improved on operating margins due to its ability to push
through price increases along with good operational cost control.
Companies contributing the least to performance during the quarter
included ScanSource and UCBH Holdings. ScanSource, a leading two-tier
distributor of specialty technology products, continues to produce healthy
profitability, driven by the application of its unique distribution model to
additional product categories and geographies. However, the stock suffered
during the quarter when one of its partners mismanaged a product launch,
while another mismanaged pricing in Europe. We view the issues as
temporary in nature and not reflective of a change in the quality of the
underlying business. Additionally, the company expanded its opportunities
in telecommunications and security with the acquisition of MTV Telecom in
Europe and the new vendor relationship with GE Security
UCBH reported highly disappointing first quarter 2008 results, driven by a
dramatic deterioration in loan quality. We initially entered the stock when
UCBH primarily acted as a lender to the low-risk commercial real estate
market (apartment, owner-occupied, and income producing properties)
and boasted a long track record of serving an attractive, fast-growing niche
segment of the ethnic Chinese population. Recently, however, UCBH rapidly
expanded into higher risk construction within the commercial and
industrial segments. Construction loans advanced 50% between the first
quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, sourcing the company’s
dramatic deterioration in problem loans. Considering the initial loan-to-value
ratio of the bank’s construction portfolio and adjusting for first quarter
loan loss reserves, we exited our position in UCBH believing that
declining real estate values will require further reserve additions and will
continue to drag on earnings.
Purchases and Sales
In the Small Cap Core Portfolio, we increased our position in Blackbaud and
sold our positions in UCBH (discussed above) and Medical Action Industries
(MDCI).
Blackbaud, the leading vendor of software designed specifically for the nonprofit
industry, was weak due to the belief that the company’s non-profit
customers are seeing a more protracted purchase cycle of infrastructure
software products from a weak economy and financial markets that have
diminished charitable giving and investment portfolios. However, we believe
the company’s new products (eCRM and NetCommunity) are flowing
through the pipeline nicely and international markets, as well as certain
recession-resistant verticals, such as education and global health care, are
performing well. With over half of its total revenue derived from a recurring
revenue model in the form of subscription license and maintenance fees,
the low capital structure generates exceptional free cash flow that Blackbaud
has strategically used to buyback shares. We used the weakness in the shares
to add to our position.
MDCI, a manufacturer of a broad line of disposable medical products,
reported earnings-per-share down in the most recent quarter due to ongoing
integration issues related to an acquisition made roughly 18 months ago,
increasing resin costs, and increasing costs of certain products sourced from
China. Revenue grew only 4%, the lowest quarterly growth in some time and
below the company’s stated target of high single digits. The company began
to institute price increases, but not at a level to offset continuing rising costs.
Thus, margins will undoubtedly decline. In addition, the company needs to
replace equipment at the acquired business, making the business more
capital intensive and, thereby, lowering returns on capital. Despite trading at
an attractive valuation and our belief that the company will eventually be
able to successfully integrate the acquisition and eliminate the associated
costs, we sold the stock during the quarter. We believe the combination of
slower revenue growth, ongoing resin cost increases, and increasing capital
intensity will result in a permanent multiple contraction and will create
strong headwinds to earnings growth.
Outlook
Inflationary concerns, driven by the cost of oil rising to over $140 per barrel,
is limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to further lower interest rates to
stimulate the economy. Globally, higher inflation is leading policy makers to
implement policies to slow growth. This should lead to a decrease in
demand for commodities over time and, if past cycles repeat, lower prices.
At this point in the cycle, we believe owning a diversified portfolio of
companies with a high return on equity, strong balance sheets, and above
market earnings growth is a prudent strategy.
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| Data is obtained from Bloomberg, FactSet Research Systems, and a major consulting firm, and is assumed to be reliable. Other principal consultant firms may use different algorithms to calculate selected statistics. Data is as of June 30, 2008.
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As always, we endeavor to manage your portfolio with the highest quality
businesses, outgrowing their markets, purchased at discount values.
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